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Apr18

RU Serious?

Prime Minister Theresa May makes a statement in Downing Street, London, announcing a snap general election on June 8. PRESS ASSOCIATION Photo. Picture date: Tuesday April 18, 2017. See PA story POLITICS May. Photo credit should read: Philip Toscano/PA Wire

And so, out of the blue, just as further economic uncertainty hits Europe with pending French elections and the countdown to German elections, on the back off the collapse of any semblance of democracy in Turkey, Theresa May calls a snap general election.

Is this though a general election? The way I see it, it is about timing the extension of Tory power just right. May will be hoping that with the Scots wanting to consider their position this will weaken the Labour vote and not dilute Tory support at all. Corbyn has done a great job himself of marginalizing any chance his party has of solid support and approval for Ms May herself seems solid. Polls have her at 46% for winning the vote, so why in the back of my mind am I thinking about Brexit?

The simple reason is this… Have the British public really resigned themselves to the fact that the UK is indeed leaving the EU? Have they affirmed in their minds that the 52% majority who voted are indeed going to come out as Tory supporters on Election Day?

My concern is that people indeed may forget this is a general election and consider it a chance to revisit the Brexit vote, this could be the wild card that would seriously undermine the Tory strategy. This in turn could throw the UK in to complete disarray as votes go to fringe candidates, or even Labour (God, no!), the SNP will do very well and perhaps even shore up their position in Scotland and the fallout could be catastrophic for the UK as a whole. I have no doubt Labour and others will strategise around this being a vote to stay in Europe and overturn Brexit, and my hope is that people will see through that as a vote for Labour, especially under the current leadership would be cataclysmic for the UK in every possible way.

In this last year or so of unforeseen events, a convincing Tory victory in the last general election, Brexit, Trumps victory and who knows what might happen in France in the near future, lets just hope people remember what they have voted for, and who they are voting for going forward. As for todays sudden leap in Sterling value, my view is it is a reach for the stars which will fall short very quickly once reality bites, plus it is simply pricing in some of the negative news the USA released over the long Easter weekend, I guess we will see with that regard as well… I’m short the Pound today, I don’t see this as good news, I believe agendas are being run and the current Government are taking a calculated risk, and should just stand up and admit it is a play for another term when they could easily see this one out. Positive, it does mean they would be committed to Brexit and getting it over the line, and if they do win why on earth anyone would think they would take a softer line I really don’t know. The other side of that though, is should the Torys lose then who knows where this would leave the UK, with a hung result of a massive erosion in majority it would be hard, with Corbyn in charge the UK would stare in to the abyss…

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